Bulletin No. 18 (170) 2025
October 27, 2025Russia–US Rift Deepens; Budapest Talks Collapse; Oil Sanctions Hit; Syria Reset; Kremlin Reshuffle
OVERVIEW OF KEY TRENDS
IN FOCUS
Sanctions Instead Of Budapest
Phone Call
What Went Wrong?
Trump’s First Sanctions
What Next?
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS
Russia-Syria Talks
New Reality
Bases, Assad And The Economy
Domestic Factors
The New Head Of Strategic Department
Optimising War Costs: Reservists And Contractors
Mobilising Reserves And Financial Optimisation
Adjusting Contract Soldier Payments
Unpopular Recycling Fee Under Question
The FSB Targets The Anti-War Committee At PACE
INDICATORS
Stagnation Is Here
Sacrifices For The Wars
R.Politik RECOMMENDS
Kremlin.ru
Brief presentation
We examine the brief and ultimately failed opening for a U.S.–Russia peace track on Ukraine. A two-hour call between Presidents Putin and Trump raised the prospect of a bilateral summit in Budapest and a potential deal involving a Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas. However, following internal disagreements in Washington and Moscow’s rigid demands, the initiative collapsed. The cancellation of the meeting was swiftly followed by Trump’s first sanctions package targeting Rosneft and Lukoil—signalling a return to coercive diplomacy. Moscow, undeterred, is doubling down on military pressure, betting on Ukraine’s declining resilience.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS
Russia–Syria talks: Moscow adapts to the new leadership in Damascus to secure military basing and energy deals.
Kozak’s inheritance: a head of new department has been finally appointed.
Military resource management: adjustments to contractor payments and mobilisation planning aim to contain war costs.
Recycling levy under scrutiny: unpopular environmental fee faces policy may be rollbacked amid domestic pressures.
Opposition clampdown: the FSB expands terrorism cases against Khodorkovsky- and Navalny-linked groups abroad.
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