We examine the stalling momentum behind efforts to broker a peace deal over Ukraine. Moscow views the emerging framework—with its shifted focus on securing a strong Ukraine and NATO-style guarantees—as a threat to its position. The Kremlin has adopted a discreet stance, avoiding overt rejection of proposals circulating in the media. Instead, it is using diplomatic backchannels, including Kirill Dmitriev’s trip to Miami, to assess U.S. intentions and recalibrate its approach. While public messaging remains cautious, the bulletin analyses how these developments are constraining Russia’s ability to shape the terms of any settlement.

SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS