This edition examines the complex interplay between the US-led Ukraine peace talks and Russia’s geopolitical recalibrations. Washington and Kyiv have reached a near-complete framework for peace, centred on long-term Western security guarantees for Ukraine. Russia, meanwhile, finds itself isolated and uncertain: the proposals are fundamentally at odds with its war aims, yet Moscow is reluctant to alienate Donald Trump, whose administration has taken a harder stance by seizing Russian-linked vessels and targeting the shadow oil fleet. The alleged drone attack on Putin’s Valdai residence has given the Kremlin a pretext to escalate militarily while blaming Kyiv for undermining negotiations.

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