Bulletin No. 1 (175) 2026
January 13, 2026Trump Seizes Maduro; Ukraine Talks Advance; Moscow Hardens Line; Kozak’s Future Questioned; Business Voices Discontent
OVERVIEW OF KEY TRENDS
IN FOCUS
Ukraine And Venezuela: Russia Seeks Better Tactics
Trilateral Contacts
Security Guarantees
Russia's Expectations
The Venezuela (And Greenland) Factor
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS
The US Takes Maduro: Domestic Aspects
Moscow’s Confused Reaction
Indignation Among The Ultra-Patriots
Economic Aspects
Putin And Russian Big Business
Games Around Kozak
A New Wave Of Xenophobia
INDICATORS
What Russians Expect From 2026
Russia's Industrial Slowdown In 2025
R.Politik RECOMMENDS
Kremlin.ru
Brief presentation
This edition examines the complex interplay between the US-led Ukraine peace talks and Russia’s geopolitical recalibrations. Washington and Kyiv have reached a near-complete framework for peace, centred on long-term Western security guarantees for Ukraine. Russia, meanwhile, finds itself isolated and uncertain: the proposals are fundamentally at odds with its war aims, yet Moscow is reluctant to alienate Donald Trump, whose administration has taken a harder stance by seizing Russian-linked vessels and targeting the shadow oil fleet. The alleged drone attack on Putin’s Valdai residence has given the Kremlin a pretext to escalate militarily while blaming Kyiv for undermining negotiations.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS
Trump’s capture of Nicolás Maduro: fear and awe in Moscow, with visible discrepancies over how to respond.
Putin’s year-end meeting with business leaders: growing uncertainty over interest rates, inflation, and stagnating investment.
Dmitry Kozak’s political trajectory: renewed speculation over whether he is a potential prime minister or a sidelined figure.
Anti-migrant backlash: escalating xenophobia highlights internal rifts between security agencies and economic ministries.
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