This edition examines the unprecedented Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace on 10 September. While it remains uncertain whether the operation was deliberate, the scale and unusual flight paths suggest it was not a simple error. Even if unintended, Moscow can benefit from such incidents: they expose NATO’s vulnerabilities, force the alliance to expend costly resources, and increase doubts about the security of European airspace. They also shift the focus of the war beyond Ukraine, serving Russia’s interest in pressuring European governments. We also explore Belarus’s attempts to present itself as a mediator between Moscow, Kyiv, and the Trump administration — a manoeuvre constrained by its deep dependence on Russia.

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