Bulletin No. 19 (171) 2025
November 10, 2025Electoral Clash Exposes System Tensions; Nuclear Uncertainty Grows; Venezuela Pressure Builds; Lavrov Targeted; AI Enters Campaign
OVERVIEW OF KEY TRENDS
IN FOCUS
A Crack Within The Electoral Vertical
Balitsky vs Pamfilova: Round One
Tension Rises: Round Two
Conflict With Kursk: Round Three
Balitsky To Be Removed?
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS
Nuclear Tests: New Uncertainty
Security Council Theatrics
Nuclear Ambiguity
Denuclearisation Or Arms Control?
What’s Up With Lavrov?
Looming State Duma Election
Tensions In Venezuela And Russia's Position
America’s Enemy
Russia’s Friend
New Governor Of Tver Region
Belousov’s New Deputy
Lukoil’s Deal Derailed
INDICATORS
Price Increases And Fatigue
Fading Optimism
R.Politik RECOMMENDS
Kremlin.ru
Brief presentation
We analyse a rare and instructive institutional clash within the Russian power system. Zaporizhzhia “Governor” Yevgeny Balitsky’s attempt to subordinate the regional election commission and dismiss its head triggered a coordinated backlash from the Central Election Commission, the Prosecutor General’s Office, and the Presidential Administration. The conflict revealed the boundaries of acceptable behaviour in the “new territories,” where symbolic loyalty does not exempt leaders from procedural discipline.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS
US nuclear tests: Moscow elaborates possible responses amid growing uncertainty over the future of arms control.
Lavrov’s disappearance: Who is acting against the Russian foreign minister, and what is at stake.
State Duma 2026 campaign: The Kremlin and systemic opposition increasingly rely on artificial intelligence for voter profiling and message targeting.
Venezuela dilemma: Moscow maintains symbolic support for Maduro but avoids military commitments amid US pressure.
Tver’s new governor: The appointment process reveals difficulties in filling regional posts under wartime conditions.
Belousov’s new deputy: An appointment aimed at aligning the Defence Ministry with the military-industrial complex.
Lukoil’s deal derailed: OFAC blocks the asset sale to Gunvor, leaving the company exposed to nationalisation or loss of foreign holdings.
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