Bulletin No. 13 (165) 2025
July 08, 2025Russia–Azerbaijan Tensions; NATO Outlook; EEU Summit; Deprivatisation; Systemic Opposition Dynamics
OVERVIEW OF KEY TRENDS
IN FOCUS
The Russia-Azerbaijan Escalation
Targeted Or Routine?
Baku’s Reaction
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS
The NATO Summit
A Pivotal Summit
The US, NATO And Ukraine
Eurasian Economic Union Summit
The Nationalisation Of Dagnefteprodukt
Andrey Turchak’s Problems
Managing The Systemic Opposition
The Split In The LDPR
Communist Congress
INDICATORS
Slowdown In The Russian Economy
Views On The Iran-Israel Conflict
R.Politik RECOMMENDS
Kremlin.ru
Brief presentation
This edition’s lead analysis explores the deepening friction between Moscow and Baku. Beneath the high-profile detentions, diplomatic rebukes, and cancelled official contacts lies a complex story of regional realignment. Azerbaijan, emboldened by its military successes and Turkey’s backing, is asserting a more autonomous path—while Russia struggles to maintain influence in a region it once took for granted. Although both sides are seeking to avoid a full-scale rupture, the underlying tensions remain unresolved and likely to resurface.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS
NATO Summit: Europe adopts a 5 percent defence spending target, reinforcing Moscow’s belief in Western disunity and strategic overreach.
US, NATO & Ukraine: Mixed signals from Washington and a pause in US military aid to Ukraine feed Russia’s sense of tactical opportunity.
Eurasian Economic Union Summit: Russia highlights symbolic trade deals with the UAE and Mongolia to signal resilience amid isolation.
Nationalisation in Dagestan: The Dagnefteprodukt case illustrates how Moscow uses economic levers to unsettle regional power structures.
Andrey Turchak’s Standing: Once a rising figure, Turchak continues to face political stagnation in the Altai Republic.
LDPR Infighting: The expulsion of Yaroslav Nilov reveals deepening fractures within Zhirinovsky’s former party.
Communist Party Congress: Zyuganov holds his ground while rejecting reform, under quiet but growing administrative control.
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