We analyse the entrenched tactical deadlock between Russia and the United States, where political dialogue has stalled and military risk is rising. Moscow’s attempt to revive the Anchorage framework now coincides with Washington’s deliberations on supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine—an escalation the Kremlin equates with a nuclear threat. At the same time, Europe’s tougher posture—moves to unlock frozen Russian assets, constrain the “shadow fleet,” and develop an air-defence shield over western Ukraine—has deepened systemic confrontation.

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