Bulletin No. 7 (181) 2026
April 12, 2026FSB Internet Crackdown Triggers Banking Chaos; Iran War Hardens Moscow on Ukraine; RSPP Congress Extracts 'Voluntary' War Funds; AI Law Locks Out the West; Pashinyan Tests Limits in Moscow
OVERVIEW OF KEY TRENDS
IN FOCUS
The Internet Crackdown in Russia
The Fight Against VPNs
The Failed Telegram Block
The Reaction of the Elite
Protest and Discontent
Conclusions and Forecasts
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS
Iran, Ukraine and Putin’s calculations
Stakes on Peace and Regionalisation
Passive Observer
Ukrainian Angle
The RSPP and Putin
AI with Traditional Values
The Bill
Reactions
Rosatom Vs. Delo Group
The Central Election Committee and the Elections
Pashinyan’s Visit to Moscow
INDICATORS
Russians and Problems with the Internet
Retail Outlets Closures in Russia
R.Politik RECOMMENDS
Kremlin.ru
Brief presentation
The FSB-guided crackdown on VPNs and Telegram marks a new phase in Russia's digital restrictions, with the security bloc mounting a simultaneous offensive on multiple fronts: mass blocking of VPN protocols, pressure on major platforms to filter VPN traffic, and the attempted strangulation of Telegram. The ban on Telegram, which began on 1 April, appears to have failed technically, while the overloaded TSPU filtering infrastructure is widely believed to have contributed to a major banking outage on 3 April that briefly left cash as the only means of payment nationwide. The crackdown has opened visible rifts within the ruling establishment and raised uncomfortable questions ahead of the Duma elections. The section examines who is driving the policy, who is resisting it, why public discontent has so far followed a familiar pattern of atomised adaptation — and what the emerging "white list" framework reveals about the kind of internet Russia is actually building.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS
Iran, Ukraine and Putin's calculations: how the war in the Middle East and the failed negotiations are reshaping Moscow's stance on Ukraine — and why the Kremlin is drawing lessons that make compromise less, not more, likely.
The RSPP and Putin: what really happened at the annual congress and the closed-door meeting with oligarchs, where 'voluntary' contributions to the war effort were pledged under carefully staged conditions.
AI with Traditional Values: a new draft law that could reshape Russia's technology landscape, lock out Western AI companies, and place the security services at the centre of the sector.
Rosatom vs. Delo Group: a corporate dispute over Russia's largest logistics holding that risks escalating beyond commercial conflict — and what it reveals about how strategic assets are managed in wartime.
The Reshaped Central Election Committee: why the Kremlin chose the most conservative renewal in the body's history ahead of September's Duma elections — and what this signals about the risks it foresees.
Pashinyan's visit to Moscow: the sustained tension in Russian-Armenian relations, with Putin publicly drawing lines on Armenia's Westward drift ahead of parliamentary elections in Yerevan.
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