Belarus between Moscow and Kyiv. Lukashenko is manoeuvring between Ukrainian threats of strikes on his territory, Russian pressure to widen the war, and a well-timed trip to Beijing. We assess how much room he actually has, and what Moscow is and is not trying to extract from him.

The parties prepare for the elections. United Russia's federal list, headed by Lavrov and Sobyanin, oscillates between pro-war figures and therapeutic messaging. We examine the logic behind the selection, the one genuine intrigue it contains, and how the systemic opposition has settled into its allotted niches.

Criminal cases near the Rotenberg brothers. The arrest of the former head of Rosaviatsia, along with a manager from Arkady Rotenberg's companies, has been widely read as a strike against the Putin-connected brothers. The bulletin examines whether that reading holds — and where the real danger for them lies.

A change of leadership in South Ossetia. For the first time since 2008, Moscow has installed an outsider as leader. We explain what this says about how Kiriyenko intends to run the unrecognised territories, and why it is not the prelude to absorption that many have assumed.