Bulletin No. 3 (177) 2026
February 10, 2026Abu Dhabi Negotiations Stall; New START Expired; Syria Reintegration Pragmatism; Lukoil's Carlyle Gamble; Domodedovo Discounted; University Access Tightens; Telegram Tug-of-War
OVERVIEW OF KEY TRENDS
IN FOCUS
Russian-American Dynamics
Abu Dhabi Talks: Round Two
The Challenge of the New Start Treaty
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS
Putin and Syria
Domodedovo Airport Sold
Lukoil Prepares for a Deal
Universities and the War
The Struggle for Telegram
INDICATORS
Labour Market Cools
The Business Climate Deteriorates Further
R.Politik RECOMMENDS
Kremlin.ru
Brief presentation
We examine Russian-American dynamics amid stalled trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, where Ukraine's sequencing plan clashed with Moscow's positions, yielding no progress. US pressure for a quick settlement before summer has frustrated both sides, with Kyiv demanding enforceable security guarantees and Russia rejecting ceasefires without concessions. The expiration of the New START Treaty and Washington's proposal for a new nuclear deal involving China place Moscow in an awkward spot, viewed as beneficial for dialogue but unlikely to succeed.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS
Putin and Syria: Moscow supports interim President al-Sharaa's reintegration efforts, securing a modest regional foothold through pragmatic military-technical cooperation.
Domodedovo Airport Sold: The forced sale at half valuation underscores investor reluctance and budget strains, consolidating control under state-linked entities.
Lukoil Prepares for a Deal: Sanctions squeeze sparks conditional sale to Carlyle, freezing billions amid rival bids — a lesser-evil wager on geopolitical reprieve with zero certainties.
Universities and the War: Reforms prioritise veterans, reducing general access and embedding wartime hierarchies in higher education.
The Struggle for Telegram: Authorities debate restrictions ahead of Duma elections, risking public irritation over digital access.
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