Russia approached this year's Victory Day in the most tense state of any in the post-Soviet era. The drastically reduced parade — no military hardware on Red Square for the first time in nineteen years, almost no foreign heads of state — was driven by a genuine fear that Ukraine could disrupt the celebrations, and prompted Putin's unusual push for the Trump-brokered three-day ceasefire. The episode unfolded against a backdrop of visibly cracking patriotic consensus: mobile internet shutdowns, drone strikes and the tangible deterioration of daily life since the war began coincided with the weakening of Putin's image as a political leader. Western intelligence leaks and reporting on alleged plotting against him have amplified speculation about a coup — exaggerated as a scenario, but symptomatic of something real. We examine Putin's current stance, the evolution of his position on Ukraine and the prospects for Russian–American interaction.

SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS