Analytical bulletin #4 (5) 2018

Dear Reader,

We would like to present to you the next issue of the Bulletin #4(5)2018 «RUSSIAN POLITICS».

Table of contents and short summary

EVENTS

Events in Armenia and Russia’s Perspective Thereon  

The Kremlin has not only accepted Serge Sargsyan’s resignation; this turn of events was the best Russia could have hoped for. Yet, Pashinyan’s prime-ministerial ambitions came as a surprise. The situation will be increasingly influenced by the leverage relating to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue and involvement of Moscow business interests in Armenia. The Kremlin has assigned the “Armenian problem” to Sergei Naryshkin.

MAIN ACTORS

The Blocking of Telegram Messenger: Who among the Russian Elite is “In Favor of” It and Who’s “Against”

The blocking of Telegram Messenger has caused a multifaceted conflict within the elite. The conflict has drawn in distinct structural subdivisions of the FSB, Igor Shchegolev’s group endeavoring to maintain its positions against the backdrop of a forthcoming cabinet shuffle, Sergei Chemezov who has ambitions in the IT sector, Sergei Kirienko who is only formally neutral, as well as Nikolai Patrushev who has been undermined by the ineffectual action of Roskomnadzor, Russia’s telecommunications watchdog. Vladimir Putin’s ambivalent position on the matter and his detachment therefrom can partially explain why the conflict has escalated. The incapacity to enforce the judgment to block Telegram Messenger could lead to significant changes in both high-level positions and structures of State regulation of communication and the Internet, and that, in turn, would affect the relevant ministry, the Presidential administration and possibly the power structures.

 

PROCESSES

Lead-up to Russia’s Cabinet Shuffle

The outline of the future government is gradually taking shape and, as the final stage is setting in, the interests of Sergei Chemezov, Sergei Roldugin, Herman Gref, Alexei Kudrin, Andrey Belousov and Dmitry Medvedev are coming through clearly. The name of the future prime minister is already known, and would only be called into question under very extreme circumstances.

The next analytical bulletin will be issued on Mai 15.

 

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