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“Putin is sending a signal that those working abroad will have maximum protection, and that if they are arrested, the state will fight for their return and roll out the red carpet for them,” said Tatyana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

She noted that Russian and Western perceptions of the deal were starkly different.

“In the West, it’s being viewed from a humanitarian and political perspective, closely followed by media, significant for society,” Stanovaya told The Associated Press. “In Russia, it’s not an issue for society, it’s an issue for the state.”

« Pour Poutine, donner son accord à cet échange, c’est avant tout s’adresser à son public domestique et notamment les agents des services spéciaux eux-mêmes », abonde la spécialiste du système russe et fondatrice du cabinet R. Politik, Tatiana Stanovaïa. « Avec ces efforts consentis pour ramener tout le monde à la maison, même un tueur avéré comme Krassikov, cela montre aux agents et aux espions qu’il se battra toujours pour eux, comme un père. Cela vise à renforcer leur confiance en lui. Poutine est également dans un certain culte de l’État, c’est très important pour lui de protéger les serviteurs de l’État. »

Peskov said that their two children only realized their parents were Russian when they took off from Turkey after the prisoner swap. When Putin greeted their children on the tarmac in Vnukovo, Peskov said, he greeted them in Spanish, saying buenas noches, or good evening.

“They are heroes for Putin,” said Tatyana Stanovaya, a Kremlin-watcher and senior fellow for the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, a political think tank based in Berlin. “Putin wants to show that these people will be treated in the most honorable way. They will have everything they need.”

Russia and the West have carried out the biggest prisoner swap since the Cold War, with sixteen prisoners handed from Russia to the West, and eight moving to Russia from the West. The deal, which was years in the making, was built around Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strong desire to return assassin Vadim Krasikov, who was jailed in Germany in 2019 for the murder of Chechen rebel commander Zelimkhan Khangoshvili. Krasikov was the linchpin of the negotiations, which eventually delivered a much bigger trade.

Many have suggested the fact that the two sides were able to come to an agreement is a hopeful sign for peace negotiations in Ukraine. But there’s little justification for such a position.

Tatiana Stanovaya, a Russia analyst and founder of R.Politik political consultancy, now based in France, said no one should expect a breakthrough in U.S.-Russia relations after the exchange, in which Russia released 16 prisoners, including some of Russia’s most prominent opposition figures. In return, Western nations released eight prisoners plus two children whose parents were captured Russian spies.

“There is no indication that the current exchange will facilitate peace talks concerning Ukraine,” Stanovaya said. “Instead, it reflects the current situation, where each side learns to live with mutual intransigence.”

“Putin wanted a deal before the elections because after that, all the meticulous preparatory work involving several governments could have been buried,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the political consultancy R.Politik, referring to the November US presidential vote. “For Putin this will be confirmation that the Americans can be flexible and pragmatic when they need something.”