Analytical bulletin #3 (4) 2018

Dear Readers,

We would like to present to you the next issue of the Bulletin #3(4)2018 «RUSSIAN POLITICS».

Table of contents and short summary

EVENTS

Joint US, Britain and France launch air strikes against Syria

Russia believes that the West has employed the least dangerous option for the air strikes against Syria. Vladimir Putin was personally involved in ensuring properlevel of communication between the Russian General Staff of the Armed Forces and the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff.  In general Russia’s basic interests were unharmed. The significant risks Russia faces in Syria come from the ruling Assad regime.

MAIN ACTORS

Oleg Deripaska

Sanctions against Oleg Deripaska might result not only in negative financial and economic consequences for his business, but also trigger change-of-ownership processes. Will there be a nationalization campaign, and who would benefit from changing pattern of ownership are the questions to be answered within the next six months.

 

Sergey Chemezov

Sanctions against Russian Financial Corporation may result in weakening the Rostec positions as far as its relations with the Ministry of Defense are concerned.However, at the same time they might help to enhance partnership between the Rostec and the FSB.

 

PROCESSES

Russia’s response to the U.S. sanctions: fight among groups of influence

So far, the Kremlin has no unified and consistent philosophy of responseto the U.S. sanctions.  As a result we face a hectic activity of a range of different centers of influence promoting counter-sanctions projects. Dmitry Medvedev, VyacheslavVolodin, Sergey Chemezov, Sergey Kirienko, and Alexander Kudrin are frantically struggling in order to expand their political opportunities or to minimize possible damage to their corporate interests.

The next analytical bulletin will be issued on Mai 1.

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