Russia Unlikely to Invade Ukraine Despite Ratcheting Tensions, Experts Believe
Losses would be too great and gains too limited, analysts told The Moscow Times.
Moreover, with a fresh summit between the Russian and American presidents in the works, the Kremlin reportedly worries that Ukraine, if undeterred, may scupper the modest thaw in U.S.-Russia relations since June’s Biden-Putin summit in Geneva.
“The fear in Moscow is that Ukrainian hawks might opt for further provocations to try to pull Russia into a full-scale confrontation,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik, a political analysis firm.
In any case, experts stress that the 114,000 Russian personnel allegedly on the border would not be sufficient to defeat Ukraine’s armed forces, estimated at around 255,000.