In the MEDIA

Russia is in a hurry to gain tangible results from the talks, according to Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of political consultancy R.Politik. For Putin, “everything depends on Biden” as the leader who will take Russian concerns seriously and the call aims to press the U.S. president “to give impetus to the negotiations,” she said.

The two sides are committed to entering 2022 with a rush of high-stakes diplomacy after Russia published draft security treaties following the first leaders’ call this month. U.S. and Russian negotiators will meet Jan. 10, two days before a NATO-Russia Council meeting. Top advisers to Putin and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also plan to meet before the NATO-Russia talks.

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Polina Ivanova in Moscow and David Sheppard in London

JANUARY 6 2022
The active joint action by the CSTO, which has a collective security provision, is the first since it was founded two decades ago. It was unclear how many troops might arrive in total. Armenia is dispatching 70 soldiers, while Tajikistan is sending 200, according to RIA news agency. They may remain in the country for about a month, Interfax reported, quoting the deputy head of the Russian parliament’s defence committee. Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of political consultancy R Politik, said the maximum participation from CSTO allies would reach no more than 3,500 troops. As for Russia, it had “decided to take part symbolically but [its forces] will be there primarily to protect infrastructure”, she added. “Russia does not want to get involved . . . It does not want to do the local government’s dirty work.”

Henry Foy in Brussels, Polina Ivanova in Moscow and James Politi in Munich

JANUARY 7 2022
The negotiations chime with two fundamental objectives that have defined Putin’s two-decade rule: a seat at the geopolitical top table opposite the US, and the prospect of halting Nato’s eastern expansion and shrinking the American military presence in Europe. “The very fact . . . that security guarantees are being discussed at all . . . is a huge breakthrough” for Russia, said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R. Politik, a Kremlin-focused political consultancy. “It’s never happened before.”
R. Politik’s Stanovaya said Putin would only be satisfied with concrete progress in Geneva, given the extent to which Nato has already expanded into the former Soviet eastern Europe. “In reality, no one knows what will be enough . . . because it’s clear Putin won’t get everything on his list,” she added. “But on this first stage . . . some sort of concession on the part of the US will be necessary.”

For years, Mr. Putin has fumed over NATO’s expansion eastward and American support for pro-Western sentiment in Ukraine; now, by creating a new security crisis that threatens to complicate President Biden’s agenda, he has succeeded in getting the issue to the forefront in Washington.  “For the first time in 30 years, the United States has agreed to discuss issues that it was impossible to discuss even a year ago,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, the founder of a political analysis firm, R.Politik.

The problem with Mr. Putin’s approach is that it gives his diplomats next to no flexibility to negotiate on Russia’s behalf, and sometimes leaves them struggling to maintain a coherent message. Ms. Stanovaya warned that even if diplomats did reach some kind of deal, hawks in Moscow who have more of Mr. Putin’s ear could soon help derail it.

Analysts noted that Mr. Ryabkov, from the diplomatic side, most likely did not even know what military options the Kremlin was considering. The virus-free cocoon Mr. Putin has tried to establish around himself has meant that even confidants are forced to spend days in quarantine before being allowed into the same room with him, further reducing his connections with the outside world.

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