In the MEDIA

R.Politik CEO and founder, Tatiana Stanovaya, is regularly quoted by major Russian and international media outlets. She is available for commentary in Russian and English.

All articles published by Tatiana Stanovaya and R.Politik’s other editors and analysts will be included here. 

Comment for The New York Times

A Russian negotiator’s positive language clashes with the hard-line rhetoric from Moscow.

March 30, 2022,

Mr. Putin himself has not commented on what the Kremlin calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine since March 18. Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the France-based political analysis firm R. Politik, noted that much of what Ukraine proposed on Tuesday would be a nonstarter for Mr. Putin, such as the idea that there would be a 15-year negotiating process about the status of Crimea — something that Mr. Putin, who annexed the Ukrainian peninsula in 2014, says is nonnegotiable.

She described the negotiations as, most likely, a feint rather than a signal that Russia was ready to wind down the war. But she noted that — as was the case in the run-up to the invasion — senior Russian officials were unlikely to know what Mr. Putin was really planning, leading to this week’s mixed messages.

“The problem with the Russian regime is that, once again, no one understands what Putin wants,” Ms. Stanovaya said. “As a result, we get this informational chaos.”


Comment for The Washington Post

‘Diminishing returns’: What can change the course for Putin in the Ukraine war?

Comment for Bloomberg

Russian Elite Are Starting to Question Putin’s War in Ukraine

Comment for The Washington Post

How Russia is laying the groundwork for its annexation of Ukraine

Moscow has introduced its passport, currency and propaganda in a race to absorb occupied regions

Comment for Reuters

Russia gives exiting firms time by pausing asset seizure law

July 12, 2022

Moscow’s plan to implement a new law enabling authorities to seize the assets of Western firms leaving the country failed to get through parliament before the summer recess, giving companies more time to negotiate exits. Russia’s parliamentary session ended last week without the bill being passed. That makes any progress unlikely until at least mid-September, when the lower house of parliament, or Duma, begins reviewing proposed laws in its autumn session.

Some experts now doubt whether the proposed law will be implemented at all. “The fact that it only passed the first reading and got stuck means there is no consensus in the government about its further fate,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of political analysis firm R.Politik.


Comment for AP

Putin keeps loyalty of Russian political elite despite outcry


Russian artists and heavyweight media figures have spoken out against the war and even billionaire oligarchs have offered veiled criticism. But after almost a month of fighting, there has been no apparent outbreak of dissent from within Putin’s inner circle or among political heavyweights inside the country. “There has been no sign of a split” within the ruling class, said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the R.Politik political analysis firm.

“There is a full consensus, albeit possibly with differences on tactics,” she added. She said a distinction had to be drawn between having reservations about the invasion and being ready to act. “People are in shock and many believe this is a mistake. But no-one is able to act. Everyone is focused on their own survival.”


Op-ed for The Financial Times

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine plants a bomb under the Russian state

Aggressive foreign policy combined with tighter repression at home will fuel public discontent

Op-ed for The Moscow Times

Life After Putin: What Happens if the President Dies?

In Russia today, “when” is more important than “if.”

The Newsweek

Putin Thinks He’s Winning Ukraine War—Russian Political Analyst

Russian political analyst has argued that Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to believe that his country is winning the war in Ukraine because he’s achieving his geopolitical goals.

Tatiana Stanovaya, founder and CEO of political analysis firm R.Politik, wrote an op-ed for Foreign Policy magazine published on Wednesday where she suggested people in the West were wrong to assume Putin thinks he’s losing the conflict.

Russian forces have suffered major setbacks, including the failure to take the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv in the early stages of the war, that have led many in the West to suggest the Russian government is aware they are losing.


Commentary for Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Has War Made Putin a Burden for Russia’s Elites?


The increasing fragility of Putin’s leadership will make the Russian elite both more divided and more autonomous—but that’s not to say a coup is in the cards.

A new political reality is emerging in Russia as the result of internal disruption caused by the war against Ukraine. This isn’t the first bifurcation point in the Putin regime: other examples include the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny in 2020. The difference is that the regime had incubated previous landmark decisions within itself, and moved toward them gradually as they germinated. The war, in contrast, caught the Russian elites unawares, and Putin’s inability to bring it to a swift and victorious end is radically changing the nature and prospects of internal political processes.

For the first time in his reign of nearly a quarter of a century, the president has made a radical strategic decision almost entirely on his own. No matter how loyal the Russian elites may be, no matter how ready they may have been to share Putin’s logic, or at least to resign themselves to it, that doesn’t alter the fact that the war was thrust upon them without any discussion or preparations.


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