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R.Politik CEO and founder, Tatiana Stanovaya, is regularly quoted by major Russian and international media outlets. She is available for commentary in Russian and English.

All articles published by Tatiana Stanovaya and R.Politik’s other editors and analysts will be included here.

Comment for AFP

January 25, 2021

Kremlin dismisses calls to free Navalny, warns against protests

Political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya said she expected protracted opposition protests, saying: “We’re on the cusp of a monumental escalation of tensions”.

AFP/File / Gal ROMAKremlin critic Alexei Navalny: from poisoning to prison

The prison service said it had detained Navalny for not checking in with officials twice per month during a probationary period resulting from the 2014 suspended sentence.

A court hearing is scheduled to take place on February 2 on whether he will see real prison time for the sentence of three years and six months.

Comment for Bloomberg

January 25, 2021

Poison, Arrest and a Secret Palace Fire Up Russians

Alexey Navalny’s call to protest has social media buzzing. Even modest crowds will cause the Kremlin concern.

Clara Ferreira Marques

22 January 2021, 08:15 CET

Given the heavy-handed reactions since Navalny’s return, the authorities will probably keep up the pressure on Saturday, leaning on pandemic rules to keep crowds dispersed. They’ve already refused permission for gatherings in several cities. Detentions are likely to continue apace. No surprise, perhaps, given the network of former security and military officials around Putin who will consider only the need to preserve order, according to Tatiana Stanovaya of consultancy R.Politik, with little concern for the hazards that come with the excessive use of force.

That doesn’t mean there won’t be enough people out to irk the Kremlin, nor that they won’t persevere.

Comment for WSJ

January 25, 2021

Russia’s Putin Faces Rising Discontent Amid Alexei Navalny Protests

Kremlin must decide how to respond to rallies supporting the jailed opposition leader

By Georgi Kantchev

Updated Jan. 24, 2021

The protests could “become the most prominent challenge for the authorities for all the 20 years of Putin’s reign,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik, an independent political-analysis firm.

But while analysts say that the scale of the rallies, which took place in more than 100 cities from Moscow to Vladivostok in Russia’s Far East, provided a boost to Mr. Navalny, the key question is whether his movement can keep up the momentum.

Mr. Navalny’s allies praised the demonstrators and called for a sequel next weekend.

“We can say that a new page in the history of Russian protests was opened yesterday,” Ivan Zhdanov, the head of Mr. Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation, wrote on Facebook on Sunday. “And there is a lot more work to come.”

Comment for The Washington Post

January 25, 2021

Even in jail, Russia’s Navalny knows how to enrage his rival Putin. This time it’s with a viral video.

By Robyn Dixon

Jan. 20, 2021

Navalny, 44, is seen by the Kremlin and securocrats as an enemy of the state, according to political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya of the R. Politik analytical firm. Bringing down Navalny is now seen as “a matter of honor” by the FSB, she said.

“They want to see Navalny destroyed in prison, physically and mentally weak and vulnerable,” she said. “They don’t care about protests or elections. They would like to see the West increase sanctions because it gives them more arguments to insist on this harsh line in Russian policy.”

Comment for The New York Times

January 25, 2021

As Protests Shake Russia, Kremlin Drops Its ‘Navalny Who?’ Tack

A stark shift by the government shows its uncertainty as Aleksei A. Navalny’s dramatic return gives disgruntled Russians a clear leader to rally around.

Comment for New Europe

January 25, 2021

With Navalny’s arrest, Russia hands Biden his first test on human rights

In Russia, there has been a tepid openness to work with the new administration based on low expectations. Before congratulating the new president, Putin described U.S.-Russia relations as “already ruined” so he saw no difference in Biden’s victory after being asked why he refused to congratulate him.

His tone shifted somewhat at his annual press conference in December when he described Biden as an “experienced person” and said Russia will “wait and see” how they could work with his team, particularly on arms control.

Any willingness to consider cooperation could end up being short-lived if Biden mounts a serious stand over Navalny. Tatiana Stanovaya, CEO of Moscow-based analysis firm R.Politik, suggested that doing so would play into the fears of Putin and his circle of spies who would see this as tantamount to interference in Russian domestic affairs. To them, Navalny represents not only a political challenge but an enemy that needs to be crushed.

“Navalny also embodies a collective Western threat; an intention to destroy Russia that deserves a demonstrative response,” said Stanovaya.

Stanovaya highlighted that the special service leaders, known as the siloviki, maintain Putin’s trust and share his wariness of the West’s championing of the Russian oppositionist. Even if other members of his elite may question whether the current approach to the “non-systemic opposition” actually contributes to stability, they have little room to challenge it.

Article for Carnegie Moscow Centre

January 25, 2021

Don’t Look for Political Logic in the Kremlin’s Treatment of Navalny

By Tatiana Stanovaya,

The Kremlin’s approach to Navalny is a natural by-product of a political regime in which the initiative and locus of most decisionmaking concerning the real opposition or any criticism has shifted to the FSB.

How best to explain the Kremlin’s spectacular mishandling of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny?

At first glance, Navalny’s arrest at a Moscow airport on Sunday looks like an irrational and self-injurious overreaction. The Kremlin’s move all but guarantees a new wave of protests inside Russia. For years, the Kremlin had tried to treat Navalny like a run-of-the-mill nuisance. Now it has transformed him into something of a folk hero for a growing number of Russians.

Yet beneath the surface, the failed assassination and the dramatic arrest of an endlessly combative yet media-savvy opponent of the Putin regime reveal a different storyline. For quite some time, it has been commonplace to talk about Kremlin decisionmaking as though Russia’s leadership were a monolith. It isn’t. Nor is the Russian ruling elite all that cohesive. When it comes to the Navalny case, its ranks are deeply split—in ways that have all too often been ignored.

Comment for AFP

January 18, 2021

To jail or not to jail: Kremlin in bind over Navalny return

Anna SMOLCHENKO

Fri, January 15, 2021

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s defiant pledge to return to Moscow from Germany after surviving a poisoning attack puts the Kremlin in a major bind.

President Vladimir Putin, observers say, is caught between a rock and a hard place: allow his most outspoken critic to freely return to Russia and risk looking weak, or hand Navalny a lengthy prison term and potentially turn him into a global cause celebre.

“There is not a good decision here but some sort of decision will have to be made,” political analyst Tatyana Stanovaya told AFP.

The 44-year-old’s announcement that he was returning to Moscow on Sunday aboard Pobeda — Aeroflot’s low-cost subsidiary whose name means “Victory” in Russian — drew gasps from admirers and critics alike.

Stanovaya said Navalny could still avoid long-term incarceration if authorities find a way to limit his political activities, perhaps by declaring him a “foreign agent” under legislation restricting individuals or organisations who receive funds from abroad.

But the Kremlin may have a low appetite for risk, with Russia set to hold parliamentary elections in September and the coronavirus pandemic exacerbating economic woes.

“I have a feeling the Kremlin has grown tired of these games,” said the head of the R.Politik analysis firm. “The confrontation with Navalny has been going on for too long.”

Comment for The New York Times

January 18, 2021

Aleksei Navalny Says He’ll Return to Russia on Sunday

The opposition leader has been recovering in Germany from a poisoning attack widely attributed to the Russian state.

By Anton Troianovski, Jan. 13, 2021

At the same time, the Kremlin raised the pressure on Mr. Navalny, signaling that he would end up in jail if he returned to Russia. President Vladimir V. Putin described Mr. Navalny as a C.I.A. asset and quipped that if Russian agents had wanted to kill the opposition leader, “they would have probably finished the job.”

But imprisoning the opposition leader would carry risks for the Kremlin because the move could set off protests, and, by announcing his imminent return, Mr. Navalny appears to be calling Mr. Putin’s bluff. An ally of Mr. Navalny, Lyubov Sobol, was jailed in Moscow for 48 hours in December, then released.

Comment for The Washington Post

January 18, 2021

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny detained on his return to Moscow

By Isabelle Khurshudyan and Loveday Morris

Jan. 18, 2021

Tatiana Stanovaya, head of political analysis firm R. Politik, wrote on the Telegram messaging app that Navalny’s arrest will trigger protests that would test “how far [Russian security services] and the most repressive apparatus of the state can go.”

Despite the late change in airport, Navalny’s supporters showed up at Sheremetyevo, and chanted the name of Navalny’s wife, Yulia, as she exited the border control area.

In the MEDIA

Kremlin dismisses calls to free Navalny, warns against protests

Poison, Arrest and a Secret Palace Fire Up Russians

Russia’s Putin Faces Rising Discontent Amid Alexei Navalny Protests

Kremlin must decide how to respond to rallies supporting the jailed opposition leader

Even in jail, Russia’s Navalny knows how to enrage his rival Putin. This time it’s with a viral video.

As Protests Shake Russia, Kremlin Drops Its ‘Navalny Who?’ Tack

With Navalny’s arrest, Russia hands Biden his first test on human rights

Don’t Look for Political Logic in the Kremlin’s Treatment of Navalny

To jail or not to jail: Kremlin in bind over Navalny return

Aleksei Navalny Says He’ll Return to Russia on Sunday

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny detained on his return to Moscow

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In the MEDIA

Kremlin dismisses calls to free Navalny, warns against protests

Poison, Arrest and a Secret Palace Fire Up Russians

Russia’s Putin Faces Rising Discontent Amid Alexei Navalny Protests

Kremlin must decide how to respond to rallies supporting the jailed opposition leader

Even in jail, Russia’s Navalny knows how to enrage his rival Putin. This time it’s with a viral video.

As Protests Shake Russia, Kremlin Drops Its ‘Navalny Who?’ Tack

With Navalny’s arrest, Russia hands Biden his first test on human rights

Don’t Look for Political Logic in the Kremlin’s Treatment of Navalny

To jail or not to jail: Kremlin in bind over Navalny return

Aleksei Navalny Says He’ll Return to Russia on Sunday

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny detained on his return to Moscow

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