Comment for The Moscow Times
- May 11, 2021
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R.Politik CEO and founder, Tatiana Stanovaya, is regularly quoted by major Russian and international media outlets. She is available for commentary in Russian and English.
All articles published by Tatiana Stanovaya and R.Politik’s other editors and analysts will be included here.
«Ces réactions ne sont pas réellement adressées aux Américains, considère la politiste Tatiana Stanovaya.Elles relèvent de la politique intérieure, elles sont adressées directement à Vladimir Poutine. Il existe au sein de l’élite russe une tendance anti-américaine très forte, et cette histoire est un excellent prétexte pour ses représentants de marquer des points, de se faire remarquer par Poutine et d’en tirer un bénéfice politique.»
Quant au président russe lui-même, il s’est contenté d’un sarcastique : «Je lui souhaite une bonne santé.» Avant d’ajouter, sourire condescendant aux lèvres : «Comme disent les enfants, c’est celui qui le dit qui l’est.» Et d’enfoncer le clou d’un «ce n’est pas juste une expression enfantine, une blague […], nous voyons toujours en l’autre nos propres caractéristiques». «Une façon d’affirmer, considère Stanovaya, que ces accusations ne le touchent pas, qu’il n’a pour Joe Biden que du mépris, presque de la pitié».
Pro-Navalny gatherings in cities between Russia’s Baltic and Pacific coasts have sharpened minds on what might happen if he dies.
“This is difficult to talk about, but I think that now that he is in a really bad condition, we are getting prepared. It would not be something really unexpected if something happens to him,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of political analysis firm R.Politik.
She added that Putin was likely to make some effort “to prevent the worst” from happening, but it was as much in the hands of the prison authorities.
“It means that, psychologically, we are ready. Somehow, the international community and Russian society are getting prepared for the worst,” she said, adding that she did not expect the opposition leader’s death to be followed by a spike in sanctions or to fuel large-scale demonstrations.
“I don’t believe we will see a huge wave of protests now because people are frightened and there is a wave of repressions and threats,” said Stanovaya, who is also a non-resident scholar at the Moscow Carnegie Center.
With an air of moral superiority, the Russian president seems intent on teaching President Biden and other Western leaders a lesson.
Now in his third decade in power, Mr. Putin, 68, appears more convinced than ever of his special, historic role as the father of a reborn Russian nation, fighting at home and abroad against a craven, hypocritical, morally decaying West.“This sense of superiority mixed with arrogance gives him a feeling of power, and this is dangerous,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a Russian analyst who has studied Mr. Putin for years. “When you think you are more powerful and more wise than everyone else around you, you think you have a certain historical mandate for more wide-ranging action.”
Ms. Stanovaya, the analyst, says she is convinced that Mr. Putin himself is more interested than his hawkish advisers in looking for ways to work with the United States. She explained her view by pointing to Mr. Putin’s determination to return Russia to the ranks of great powers.
“Putin very much believes in his mission as a great, historic figure with responsibility not only for Russia, but also for global security,” Ms. Stanovaya said. “He doesn’t understand how it is that the American president doesn’t feel the same way.”
Alors que Vladimir Poutine a délégué au FSB la gestion d’opposants comme Navalny, le pouvoir est paralysé face au mécontentement d’une part croissante de la population, décrypte dans un entretien au « Monde » la politologue Tatiana Stanovaya.
Née en 1978, diplômée de l’université d’Etat de Moscou, Tatiana Stanovaya a travaillé pour diverses entreprises russes avant de se concentrer sur son travail académique. En 2018, elle a fondé son propre centre de recherches, R. Politik, un think tank indépendant spécialisé dans l’observation des élites russes. Elle collabore aussi avec le centre Carnegie de Moscou.
Après la condamnation d’Alexeï Navalny à de la prison ferme, le 2 février, le Kremlin en a-t-il fini avec le « problème Navalny » ?
Ce qui se passe en Russie (le mouvement de contestation, sa répression…) n’est pas seulement lié au « facteur Navalny ». Pour beaucoup de Russes ordinaires, Alexeï Navalny reste une figure controversée – 56 % désapprouvent son action, et cette attitude a peu évolué depuis son empoisonnement [en août 2020] et son emprisonnement. Les raisons pour lesquelles le soutien à Vladimir Poutine s’érode sont plus larges : six années consécutives de baisse des revenus, la détérioration des conditions sociales, mais aussi, à partir de 2016, la fin de l’euphorie liée à l’annexion de la Crimée [en 2014].
Maria Zakharova, the foreign ministry spokeswoman, accused the court of destroying the framework of international law. Tatiana Stanovaya, a political analyst, said that the ruling would “provoke rage” in Moscow.
The court said that Russia had not identified the people who had tried to kill Navalny, meaning that he would be in danger inside prison. In December he tricked an FSB agent into admitting there had been a plot to kill him by smearing novichok on his underpants. Russia has refused to investigate what it calls Navalny’s “illness”.
Navalny raised the focus on officials’ opulent lifestyles in a video released after his arrest that’s got 108 million views and alleged that Putin owns a giant $1.3 billion Black Sea palace. Putin dismissed the claim and a billionaire ally, Arkady Rotenberg, said last week that he is the beneficial owner of the residence.
“The opposition outside the system is seen by the Kremlin as a hostile force, a threat to national security, which requires harsh, merciless, repressive tactics against Navalny” and his allies, said Tatiana Stanovaya, head of political consultancy R.Politik. “This is only the beginning.”
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