The bulletin

EVENTS
The agenda at the St. Petersburg International economic forum is dominated by law enforcement
The Kremlin looks trapped amid the outrage generated as A prominent journalist is arrested
ACTORS
Expectations are growing that Surkov will be dismissed
The failure of Sergei Morozov in Astrakhan & the calculus behind his replacement
PROCESSES
Headaches for Putin: falling approval ratings & a loss of control over flagship spending projects

EVENTS
U.S.-Russia relations: Pompeo visits Russia
Unpicking Russia’s new energy security doctrine
ACTORS
The levers of Shoigu’s domestic political influence
The crisis at Kommersant reflects growing elite in-fighting
PROCESSES
Protests in Yekaterinburg: a failure of political management?

EVENTS
The stakes rise after the Ukrainian presidential elections — and Russia is preparing for the worst
ACTORS
Lavrov’s resentment and Minsk’s unhappiness push Putin to sack his ambassador to Belarus
PROCESSES
A bitter power struggle is in underway in the FSB: why General Tkachev’s subordinates are under attack

EVENTS
The Arctic Forum: Rosatom’s ideas, policy from Trutnev, Rosneft’s Arctic cluster and Novatek’s new priorities
ACTORS
Seleznev exits Gazprom, Shell ousted from Baltic LNG project, Miller’s prospects & manoeuvring by Timchenko & Rotenbergs
An Arctic LNG cluster, Dukov-Mikhelson ties & possible problems for Gazprom
PROCESSES
Calvey house arrest, Putin’s daughter & FSB vulnerabilities
Against the political grain: the release of Serebrennikov
Arkhangelsk demonstrations & the Kremlin’s options amid growing regional protest activity

EVENTS
What does Russia want from Ukraine’s presidential elections?
ACTORS
Abyzov arrest: corporate conflict & pressure on Medvedev
Ishayev arrest: caught between Sechin, Kiriyenko & Trutnev
PROCESSES

EVENTS
Nazarbayev’s resignation and Russia’s ‘problem-2024’
New internet bills pass as conflict rages
ACTORS
Governor reshuffle: kick-boxer, technocrats & businessmen
Alexander Beglov is bulldozing his way toward elections
PROCESSES
Defence Ministry seeks to tighten control over Arctic waters

EVENTS
Games with the ‘municipal filter’: why there is no chance of the electoral rules being relaxed
ACTORS
The growing influence of Konstantin Chuychenko
Volodin vs. Oreshkin: a battle of Putin’s successors?
PROCESSES
The Calvey case: revenge for supporting the opposition?
Major shifts continue in Arctic policymaking

EVENTS
Putin, the FSB, the Central Bank & the arrest of Calvey
Putin’s address to Federal Assembly reveals Kremlin worries over falling ratings
ACTORS
Does Vladislav Surkov’s article mean he wants to return to a top political job, or is it a sign of vulnerability?
The government makes minor personnel changes
PROCESSES
What are the Kremlin’s fears about U.S. ‘super’ sanctions?

EVENTS
Russia lays out its position as the US suspends involvement in INF Treaty
ACTORS
The defeat of the Arashukov clan: who is behind it and where does it lead?
Aleksei Miller and the arrest of the Arashukovs
Alexander Beglov’s electoral chances: how political reality limits Putin
PROCESSES
A political crisis in Venezuela and the ambiguity of Russia’s position

EVENTS
Debt write-off: local initiative causes problems for Moscow
ACTORS
Battles over OneWeb: Rogozin, technological progress and the FSB
PROCESSES
‘Import substitution’ in information security
Data storage equipment: a monopoly for Chemesov and Usmanov?
Alternative software: the FSB, Putin’s friends and the government

EVENTS
The explosion in Magnitogorsk: political infighting and rumours of terrorism
ACTORS
A new Moscow spy story: hostage, adventurer or mastermind?
New appointments and old faces in the presidential administration
PROCESSES
Friction between Minsk and Moscow: is Russia looking to absorb Belarus?