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Bulletin No. 5 (157) 2025

March 11, 2025
Strategic Ambiguity With Trump; Europe’s Survival Plan; More Repression To Come

EVENTS

Good Days For Russia?

  • Strategic Ambiguity With Trump

  • A Tactical Stroke Of Luck In Ukraine

ACTORS

Europe’s Survival Plan

  • Self-Defence

  • Commitments To Ukraine

PROCESSES

More Repression To Come

  • FSB Detention Centres

  • Obligation To Report Sabotage

In Brief

  • Foreign Companies’ Losses In Russia

  • Russian Wages Rise Amid Labour Shortages

R.Politik RECOMMENDS

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Brief presentation

Good Days For Russia?

Recent changes in US rhetoric and policy offer Russia undeniable tactical advantages. However, Moscow remains uneasy about long-term strategic implications and the broader nature of Washington’s approach. We explore the Kremlin’s underlying concerns and its assessment of US policy shifts. Additionally, we explain why the American decision to halt arms deliveries to Ukraine and reduce intelligence sharing, while beneficial to Moscow, is also viewed in a more complex light.

Europe’s Survival Plan.

We examine the Kremlin’s stance on the recent extraordinary EU summit, which focused on increasing defence spending and long-term support for Ukraine. How does Moscow view European plans to boost military budgets, France’s push for leadership, and the EU’s commitment to Ukraine, especially as the US pushes for peace talks?

More Repression To Come.

The State Duma is set to approve a draft bill transferring control of federal pre-trial detention centres from the Federal Penitentiary Service to the FSB. We outline the practical implications of this shift and its impact on the Justice and Interior Ministries. Additionally, we analyse the state’s growing pressure on ordinary Russians to act as informants.

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