The Kremlin has begun throttling Telegram, Russia’s primary platform for communication and information access. This move has triggered unexpected internal resistance across the elite, including from domestic policy overseers, regional authorities, parts of United Russia, the military, pro-war bloggers and even the systemic opposition. Our analysis examines the decision-making logic behind the move and identifies those driving it. Two scenarios are emerging: either an outright ban or pressure on Pavel Durov to grant access to communications. These developments are unfolding against a backdrop of military dissatisfaction and the political risks associated with the State Duma elections scheduled for September.

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