This issue analyses the first trilateral negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States since the outbreak of war, held in Abu Dhabi. The talks followed a preparatory visit to Moscow by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Russia agreed to participate despite Ukraine’s refusal to withdraw from Donbas—a condition Moscow considers essential for any further settlement—while maintaining its core condition for Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and preserving its original, fundamentally different interpretation of security guarantees, alongside the implicit expectation that political change in Kyiv will eventually become part of the settlement framework. The Kremlin’s tactic is to appear constructive to Washington, shift the focus to operational military matters outside the political framework, and wait for Ukraine—voluntarily or under US pressure—to begin making concessions. American optimism over technical progress belies the depth of strategic divergence between the sides.

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