Bulletin No. 17 (191) 2026
October 12, 2026Diesel Deal; Budget Prioritises War; Duma And Elite Interests; Krasnov Tightens Judicial Control; FSB Expands Defence Oversight
OVERVIEW OF KEY TRENDS
IN FOCUS
Deals Without Peace
The Diesel Diplomacy
Benefits to Putin
A Turn Towards Pragmatism
The Europe Problem
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS
Russia’s 2027–2029 Budget
Everything for the War
Who Will Pay?
Debt: Low But Costly
The New Duma: Preserving Equilibrium
Volodin Stays
The Redistribution of Posts
Jury Reform
Eroding Independence
Krasnov’s Vertical
Patriot Park: Another Corruption Case
EFKO and the Limits of Protection
GRU vs FSB?
What Happened?
Kanye West’s Cancelled Concert
Political Intervention
Elite Splits
INDICATORS
Consumers Under Pressure
Severe Business Climate
R.Politik RECOMMENDS

Kremlin.ru
Brief presentation
The Putin–Trump diesel agreement has brought economic cooperation to the forefront of diplomacy while the war in Ukraine and confrontation with Europe continue to intensify. How far can Moscow and Washington develop bilateral arrangements without moving closer to a settlement? The bulletin examines what Putin expects from Trump, the conditions shaping Russia’s approach to partial ceasefires and the significance of Europe’s resistance to Moscow’s demands. We assess how these developments affect the Kremlin’s calculations ahead of another winter of fighting.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS
Financing an open-ended war. Russia’s new three-year budget must reconcile military priorities with growing economic constraints. We examine who will bear the adjustment and what the government’s choices suggest about its capacity to sustain the war.
The Duma’s new balance. The distribution of parliamentary posts reflects bargaining among competing political networks. Behind the chamber’s limited institutional role, the appointments raise questions about whose influence is growing and where future political opportunities may emerge.
Remaking the courts. Proposals to change jury trials and centralise court finances give the Supreme Court’s leadership transition wider significance. The reforms invite closer scrutiny of the ambitions and alliances shaping judicial policy.
Patriot Park, again. The latest arrest reaches an official appointed after the departure of the Defence Ministry’s previous leadership. The case offers a test of political protection and the boundaries of security-service influence.
The EFKO drone case. Prominent figures have intervened in support of the defendants in a drone procurement investigation. We examine the reasons for this unusual mobilisation and the institutional tensions behind the production failures.
Kanye West cancelled. The abandoned concerts became a political confrontation involving commercial interests, officials and hawkish voices. Their fate offers a revealing case study of decision-making when political signals are ambiguous and Putin’s preferences carry exceptional weight.
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