Bulletin No. 16 (190) 2026
September 21, 2026United Russia Expands Majority; Moscow Targets Western Assets; FSB Faces Elite Resistance; BRICS Reassures Putin; AfD Gains Encourage Moscow
OVERVIEW OF KEY TRENDS
IN FOCUS
Elections in Russia
State Duma Election: Three Intrigues
The Systemic Opposition
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS
Western Assets Put under Temporary Administration
Big Business
Who Is Behind It?
The BRICS Summit
The Economic Agenda
The Political Agenda
A Resignation at the FSB
Russia's Perspective on the AfD's Success
Trump Factor
A Sober View
INDICATORS
Investment, Profits and the Labour Market
The Budget Deficit Continues to Widen
R.Politik RECOMMENDS
Appendix 1: State Duma Election*
Appendix 2: Regional Legislature Elections
Appendix 3: Governor Election Results

Kremlin.ru
Brief presentation
The State Duma election raises questions about how the Kremlin manages domestic politics and what comes after the vote. This issue examines the mobilisation of turnout, the competing priorities behind the campaign and the changing terms of the authorities’ dealings with opposition parties. It then considers how Putin will interpret the result and what to expect next, including how far concerns about tougher domestic policies or another military mobilisation should be linked to the election itself.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS
Western assets under temporary administration. The moves against Nestlé and Auchan raise questions about how retaliation against Europe interacts with competing interests inside the Russian state. We examine who shapes these decisions and what room remains for companies to protect their position.
The BRICS summit. Russia brought proposals on trade, payments and international institutions to a forum whose members have increasingly distinct priorities. The section assesses what Moscow seeks from BRICS, where its partners place limits on cooperation and how Putin judges the organisation’s value.
A resignation at the FSB. The departure of the head of the Economic Security Service has prompted speculation about a wider reshuffle. We consider the competing explanations, the significance of a recently abandoned prosecution and the tensions surrounding the FSB’s expanding influence over business.
Moscow’s view of the AfD. The party’s gains in German regional elections matter to Russia’s calculations about both Europe and the United States. The bulletin explores the different expectations within Moscow and the place of Germany’s political shifts in Russian efforts to cultivate common ground with Trump’s circle.
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