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Bulletin No. 16 (190) 2026

September 21, 2026
United Russia Expands Majority; Moscow Targets Western Assets; FSB Faces Elite Resistance; BRICS Reassures Putin; AfD Gains Encourage Moscow

OVERVIEW OF KEY TRENDS

IN FOCUS

Elections in Russia

  • State Duma Election: Three Intrigues

  • The Systemic Opposition

SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS

Western Assets Put under Temporary Administration

  • Big Business

  • Who Is Behind It?

The BRICS Summit

  • The Economic Agenda

  • The Political Agenda

A Resignation at the FSB

Russia's Perspective on the AfD's Success

  • Trump Factor

  • A Sober View

INDICATORS

  • Investment, Profits and the Labour Market

  • The Budget Deficit Continues to Widen

R.Politik RECOMMENDS

Appendix 1: State Duma Election*

Appendix 2: Regional Legislature Elections

Appendix 3: Governor Election Results

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Kremlin.ru

Brief presentation

The State Duma election raises questions about how the Kremlin manages domestic politics and what comes after the vote. This issue examines the mobilisation of turnout, the competing priorities behind the campaign and the changing terms of the authorities’ dealings with opposition parties. It then considers how Putin will interpret the result and what to expect next, including how far concerns about tougher domestic policies or another military mobilisation should be linked to the election itself.

SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS

  • Western assets under temporary administration. The moves against Nestlé and Auchan raise questions about how retaliation against Europe interacts with competing interests inside the Russian state. We examine who shapes these decisions and what room remains for companies to protect their position.

  • The BRICS summit. Russia brought proposals on trade, payments and international institutions to a forum whose members have increasingly distinct priorities. The section assesses what Moscow seeks from BRICS, where its partners place limits on cooperation and how Putin judges the organisation’s value.

  • A resignation at the FSB. The departure of the head of the Economic Security Service has prompted speculation about a wider reshuffle. We consider the competing explanations, the significance of a recently abandoned prosecution and the tensions surrounding the FSB’s expanding influence over business.

  • Moscow’s view of the AfD. The party’s gains in German regional elections matter to Russia’s calculations about both Europe and the United States. The bulletin explores the different expectations within Moscow and the place of Germany’s political shifts in Russian efforts to cultivate common ground with Trump’s circle.

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