Putin in Kazakhstan. The state visit and the Balkhash nuclear agreement were presented as a model for the kind of relationship Moscow would like across the post-Soviet space. Beneath the framing of friendship lie tensions both sides have learned to keep out of view; we examine what each wants from the other and what the deal actually commits Russia to.

Putin and Ukraine. A widespread assumption holds that battlefield strain, economic difficulty and domestic pressure are pushing Putin towards an exit. We assess why this reading misjudges his thinking, what he believes about the trajectory of the war, and what he is now prepared to do.

SPIEF and the economy. This year's St Petersburg forum laid bare an unusually wide gap between the financial authorities and the system's principal beneficiaries — the heads of its largest banks and industrial groups. We trace the argument over "overcooling" and what it says about the limits of the current model.

United Russia primaries. Ahead of September's Duma election, the primaries were less a contest than a test of the system. We set out what the exercise signals about the Kremlin's plans for the next parliament.

Fuel shortages. Ukrainian strikes on Russian logistics have caused regional shortages and highlighted a broader shift in the military situation. We examine the gap between official reassurances and the considerably bleaker assessment emerging from within Russia’s pro-war community.