Israel’s strike on Iran, followed by the US bombing of key nuclear facilities on 22 June, has marked a significant escalation in the longstanding regional conflict, raising the prospect of a broader and more protracted war. Although the American operation was framed as a one-off, decisive effort to coerce Tehran into abandoning its nuclear ambitions, the aftermath suggests that Washington’s involvement may further deepen, with uncertain results. Iran, having likely dispersed critical materials and preserved technical capacity ahead of the US strikes, may now be more motivated to pursue nuclear weaponisation as a deterrent.

Against this backdrop, Russia—despite its partnership with Iran—has calibrated its response cautiously. Moscow has avoided escalation with Israel, maintained working dialogue with Trump, and positioned itself to pursue both strategic and tactical advantages. The conflict provides cover to intensify the war in Ukraine while also contributing to broader global instability, particularly in the domain of nuclear non-proliferation.

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