
Bulletin No. 12 (98) 2022
June 27, 2022Russia And EU - Growing Geopolitical Risks; The Politics Of Import Substitution: Chemesov vs Hawks; Communist Affairs and The Case Of Rashkin
Main headlines:
EVENTS
Transit Problem
ACTORS
The Politics Of Import Substitution
PROCESSES
Communist Affairs

The transit ‘blockade’ and relations with the EU. We explain the dynamics behind the Russian reaction to Lithuania’s decision limiting the transit of sanctioned goods and how it has affected Russian views on the EU:
- The initial hawkish reaction and two diverging schools of thought on Europe's intentions.
- The subsequent move to calm the situation down and Moscow's geopolitical calculation in doing so.
- The bigger picture: new trends in how the Kremlin sees the EU and the reasons why we should expect a significant shift in Russian attitudes towards the Ukrainian and Moldovan membership bids.
Import Substitution. One of the most hotly-debated topics in domestic politics, revolving around the failure of import substitution programmes and the future of Rostec CEO Sergey Chemesov, the man in large part behind them. Who are Chemesov's rivals and can he count on Putin's protection? We also look at how these divisions impact United Russia, where Dmitry Medvedev and Andrey Turchak continue to jockey for control of the ruling party.
The Communists and the Kremlin. The Kremlin has succeeded in getting rid of one of the most opposition-aligned leaders of CPRF, Valery Rashkin, who has been replaced in the State Duma by Anastasiya Udaltsova, a young, well-known activist from the Left Front movement. Why is her candidacy now acceptable to the authorities, despite her history of open confrontation with them? We explain how the Communists are caught between the domestic policy overseers, Putin and its own 'radical' activists.
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