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Bulletin No. 11 (75) 2021

June 07, 2021
Russia's Belarusian Riddle; Splits In the Government; Bringing Foreign IT Companies 'Onshore'; Toughened ‘Extremist’ Law; Gudkov’s Detention

Main headlines:

EVENTS

Russia's Belarusian Riddle

ACTORS

Splits In the Government

PROCESSES

The Internet In The Political Spotlight

Fighting The Opposition Ahead Of Duma Elections

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Putin-Lukashenko talks in Sochi after the hijacked Ryanair flight. We explain why Lukashenko’s actions divided the Russian leadership on strategy toward Belarus, and why it may actually hamper Russia-Belarus integration. And we look at sanction risks and why Lukashenko is targeting ‘Russian oligarchs’ that interfere in Belarus.

Splits in the government amid squabbles over financing.

We explain what is behind Belousov’s already notorious proposal to ‘expropriate’ excess profits from the metals sector: as Putin still stands for the market economy, the cabinet will have to resort to situational deals and unofficial instruments to 'make' business pay.

We also look at ‘Sergey Chemesov vs Victoria Abramchenko' - one of the most exciting confrontations in government, which is over plans to construct 25 waste incineration plants. Chemesov is pressuring the cabinet to provide money from the federal budget and state owned banks.

Foreign internet companies under pressure. The State Duma passed a bill in its first reading that obliges foreign IT companies to open fully-fledged offices in Russia - we analyse what the authorities want to achieve. And Google is in the spotlight as the company has dared to sue Roskomnadzor - is it a bad idea? We also explain why 'Orthodox oligarch' Konstantin Malofeev barely has the authority to get YouTube banned.

Dmitry Gudkov’s arrest and release. Who was behind it? We look at how it relates to struggles between Kiriyenko’s team, Andrei Yarin/FSB and Sobyanin. Gudkov's flight from Russia is the latest move in a rolling campaign against the non-systemic opposition.

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