Russia is pursuing a dual-track strategy: direct talks with Ukraine while intensifying offensive operations. Moscow's intention is clear: Kyiv must cease resistance, accept Russia’s key demands—which it frames as addressing the core causes of the conflict—and then a genuine ceasefire may be on offer. President Putin remains highly tactical, fluctuating between escalation and diplomatic engagement depending on the circumstances. The next step is the publication of the Russian memorandum draft to be discussed in Istanbul.

SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS